Turtle Talk

Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 009: Outliers, Crises, and the Geometry of Trend

Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for a packed end of year episode of Turtle Talk. No guests this time, just the three of us digging into markets, exploring deep structural ideas, and sharing fresh insights from the worlds of trend following, diversification, and outlier hunting. This one is full of charts, data, lived experience, and a few laughs along the way.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – October 2025 ReviewClassic Trend Index edges back into positive territory for the year. We walk through the latest numbers, the recovery from the mid year drawdown, and why outlier oriented programs continue to pull away from their higher Sharpe peers.
📈 What’s Moved the NeedleViolent retracements in precious metals, deep reversals in cattle, and cycle high yields in the Japanese bond market. Jerry, Adam, and Rich break down the charts and discuss why trading through the noise requires loose pants, strong rules, and zero emotion.
🐢 Extended Turtle TidbitsA four part deep dive featuring:• Why Outlier Hunters Win Across Full Cycles, including calm world vs rough world dynamics and the geometry of compounding• One Hundred and Twenty Five Years of Crisis, and what history reveals about market structure, drawdowns, and fat tails• Diversification for Outlier Hunting, and why classic trend followers play a different game• Is Trend Following an Infinite Money Glitch, and what truly drives long term robustness
💬 Shell Mail (Q&A)Listener questions on stability, fragility, valuation extremes, diversification, and how to think about trend following when markets appear to be defying gravity.
🌐 Episode ResourcesClassic Trend Index: https://classictrendindex.comAussie Turtles: https://www.aussieturtles.comATS Trading Solutions: https://atstradingsolutions.comSend your questions: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
As our final episode for 2025, we want to thank every listener, supporter, and fellow trend follower who has joined us this year. From the three of us at Aussie Turtles, we wish you a very happy Christmas and a great New Year. We look forward to seeing you again when Turtle Talk returns in January.
#TurtleTalk #TrendFollowing #OutlierHunter #AussieTurtles #SystematicTrading #JerryParker #CTA #MarketStructure
 
 
 

Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 008: Battle of the Trends, Pyramids, and Outlier Hunting

Join Rich Brennan, Adam Havryliv, and Jerry Parker for another deep dive into the world of systematic trend following. No guests this month – just the three of us exploring markets, myth-busting, and celebrating the launch of our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – September 2025 ReviewTrend followers surge back to strength as Classic Trend Index posts another standout month. We unpack what’s driving performance across the CTA landscape.
📈 What’s Moved the NeedleGold, Silver, and Platinum shake up the metals space while U.S. equities continue their relentless climb. Jerry shares how short-side stock trends and broad diversification keep portfolios robust.
🔍 MythBusters – Did the Turtles Pyramid?Jerry sets the record straight on one of the most persistent Turtle myths, explaining why spacing isn’t pyramiding and how disciplined risk sizing separates longevity from luck.
💡 Feature Spotlight – The Aussie Turtles Trend Following GuideJerry flips the script and interviews Rich and Adam about their new book, the philosophy behind Outlier Hunting, and why mindset comes before mechanics in systematic trading.
💬 Shell Mail (Q&A)Listener questions on volatility targeting, fragility in trends, and how to think about robustness when markets compress.
🌐 Episode Resources:
Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – September 2025: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-september-2025
Classic Trend Index stats: https://classictrendindex.com
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide (book): https://www.aussieturtles.com
📩 Send your questions for the next episode: https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
#TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #JerryParker #Fractals #CTAPerformance #ClassicTrendIndex #VolatilityCompression

🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast: Episode 007 – Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival

Join Rich, Adam, and Jerry as they dive deep into the structures that shape systematic trend following. No guests this month — just the three of us tackling big themes, fresh charts, and audience questions that get right to the heart of Outlier Hunting.
In this episode:
📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August review: classic trend bounces back, but what lies beneath the numbers?📈 What’s Moved the Needle – JGBs, Copper (US & LME), Gold, Silver, and Live Cattle take center stage.🔍 Turtle Tidbits – Five heavyweight topics:
Are markets fractal and are outliers inevitable?
Expectancy vs Path Dependence – what really matters for survival?
The Cut Back Rule – Jerry explains why it’s essential.
Loose Pants – Jerry’s metaphor for risk and flexibility.
High-Vol Trend Following – unpacking Seeking Alpha’s case for why it might be the most valuable alternative investment.
💌 Shell Mail (Listener Q&A) – Audience questions on diversification sizing, lost decades in trend following, and quantifying fat-tailed events.
🎙️ Plus: Rich defends path dependence, Adam challenges mandate mixing, and Jerry sharpens his myth-busting sword.
📚 Special Announcement:Our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is being released next week! It’s the flagship collection of philosophy, process, and practice behind the Aussie Turtles® approach. Stay tuned @ https://www.aussieturtles.com/ for launch details.
🌐 Episode resources and reports discussed:
Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August 2025: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-august-2025/
Fractals, Diversification and the Myth of Dilution: https://atstradingsolutions.com/fractals-diversification-and-the-myth-of-dilution/
Are Markets Fractal? The Case for Maximum Diversification: https://atstradingsolutions.com/are-markets-fractal-the-case-for-maximum-diversification/
Expectancy vs Survival: Why the Outlier Hunter Thinks Differently: https://atstradingsolutions.com/expectancy-vs-survival-why-the-outlier-hunter-thinks-differently/
Beyond Expectancy: Protecting the Path of the Outlier Hunter: https://atstradingsolutions.com/beyond-expectancy-protecting-the-path-of-the-outlier-hunter/
High-Vol Trend Following – Most Valuable Alternative Investment: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823294-high-vol-trend-following-most-valuable-alternative-investment
📩 Got questions for the pod? Send them in:🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact
#TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #Fractals #JerryParker #Expectancy #CTAperformance

Turtle Talk Podcast – Episode 006: The NYC Getaway: Outlier Hunting

This month’s Turtle Talk is a little different — Rich and Adam join Jerry Parker at his New York getaway for a face-to-face deep dive into the philosophy and practice of outlier hunting. Recorded on Labor Day, the trio reflect on market adventures, harbor cruises, and the heart of classic trend following.
In this special episode, we skip the usual segments and go straight to the foundations:
🌍 Maximum Diversification – why spreading the net across hundreds of markets is essential for catching rare outliers.
📉 Volatility vs. Lifting Power – compounding drag, step-ups in equity curves, and why chasing smoothness can backfire.
🎯 Closed Trade Equity & Weak Compounding – why conservative sizing preserves robustness and avoids randomness.
🔍 Dynamic Position Sizing Debate – why selling into strength risks type-two errors and dilutes true outlier returns.
🐂 The Cattle Year – feeder cattle, cocoa, and how small markets often deliver oversized contributions.
💬 Classic vs. Modern Trend – Buffett, Munger, and the tension between concentrated conviction and wide diversification.
🎙️ Expect candid debate, laughs, and plenty of lessons as the Aussie Turtles and Jerry unpack what it really means to maximize CAGR through pure outlier hunting
📚 Coming Soon: The Aussie Turtles® Trend Following Guide – philosophy, process, and practice in one volume.
 

Turtle Talk Podcast Episode 005: Outliers, Recovery, and the Spirit of Classic Trend

Join Rich, Adam and Jerry — this month joined by two special guests from the deep south — Bruno Campos (Brazil) and Andrés Petrocelli (Argentina) — as we explore the recovery phase in trend following and what sets outlier hunters apart from the rest.
Note: Due to connection issues, Andrés was only able to join us for the introduction of the session. We look forward to having him back in a future episode for the full conversation.
Bruno, a macroeconomist turned systematic investor, shares his journey from economic models to embracing uncertainty. We dig into the June trend following reports, challenge assumptions about diversification, and reflect on how outlier strategies diverge from vol-controlled approaches.
In this episode:
📉 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes: June saw a bounce across the board — but will the recovery be V-shaped?🌾 What’s Moved the Needle: Grains collapse, metals surge, and bitcoin breaks out — with feeder cattle stealing the show🔍 Outlier Hunting vs. Vol Control: Are some managers slowing their own recoveries by taming tail risk?🎯 Spotlight on Bruno Campos: From factor research to trend conviction — an economist’s pivot to price💬 Mythbuster with Jerry Parker: “Is the S&P a good trend following system?” Jerry says absolutely not — and here’s why.
🎙️ Plus: Adam questions mixed mandates, Rich defends idiosyncratic exposure, and Jerry plots his next myth to slay.
📚 Coming Soon:The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is nearly here — our flagship book of trend following philosophy, process, and practice. Stay tuned for the release!
📩 Got questions for the pod? Send them in:🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact-us/
🌐 Catch episode details and more at:https://www.aussieturtles.com/turtle-talk/
📊 Reports discussed:• Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – June 2025• Rising Stars and Trend Titans – June 2025
#TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #ClassicTrend #JerryParker #BrunoCampos #AndresPetrocelli #MomentumEdge #QuantInvesting

Episode 004: From Lab Coat to Trend Charts: Dr. Kevin Maki

In Episode 004 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam and Jerry are joined by evidence-based investor Dr. Kevin Maki for a sharp, data-driven conversation on trend following from the investor’s seat. They dive into drawdowns, model robustness, and the overlooked edge of momentum quality, all through the lens of disciplined, statistical thinking.

Episode 003: Featuring Special Guest Moritz Seibert – "Outliers, Drawdowns, and the Edge of Classic Trend"

In Episode 003 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry are joined by trend tactician Moritz Seibert for a wide-ranging, no-filter discussion on navigating drawdowns, unleashing outliers, and staying true to the classic trend code.

Episode 002: "Riding the Storm with Salem Abraham"

In Episode 002 of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and Jerry are joined by trend-following legend Salem Abraham for a no-holds-barred conversation about thriving in turbulent markets. 

Episode 001: "The Classic Trend Addicts are Back"

In the debut episode of Turtle Talk, Rich, Adam, and trend-following legend Jerry Parker dive into the raw, unfiltered world of Classic Trend Following. They break down the latest trend-following index battle, spotlight rising stars, debunk common myths, and explain why chasing outliers—not smoothing returns—is the key to long-term success. No overlays, no shortcuts—just pure trend addiction!